Twitte
گزارشی جالب از دویچ بانک درباره دلار استرالیا:
http://www.orderflowtrading.com/Port...E/Deutsche.pdf
FX DailyFlow fallacies and the AUD
__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ ____________
Deutsche Bank AG/Sydney
Could ‘flows’ push the AUD to parity?
In the dozen charts over the page and the text below we break down the
capital flows data and show that flows are simply a function of underlying
fundamentals. On that basis we conclude that ‘flows’ will only push the AUD
through parity if you believe that: the mining investment boom will return; or
the interest rate differential between Australia and the US will return to the
levels seen in 2012 (which would require ~100 bps of rate hikes in Australia);
or credit growth will accelerate dramatically (or some combination of the
above). None of these events are likely in our view.
__________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ ____________
Deutsche Bank AG/Sydney
Could ‘flows’ push the AUD to parity?
In the dozen charts over the page and the text below we break down the
capital flows data and show that flows are simply a function of underlying
fundamentals. On that basis we conclude that ‘flows’ will only push the AUD
through parity if you believe that: the mining investment boom will return; or
the interest rate differential between Australia and the US will return to the
levels seen in 2012 (which would require ~100 bps of rate hikes in Australia);
or credit growth will accelerate dramatically (or some combination of the
above). None of these events are likely in our view.
http://www.orderflowtrading.com/Port...E/Deutsche.pdf
)))
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