آخرین مطالب مفید و آموزشی از سایت های خارجی معتبر در زمینه آنلاین تردینگ

[PCM]

آخرین مطالب مفید و آموزشی از سایت های خارجی معتبر در زمینه آنلاین تردینگ در این تاپیک مطرح می شود.ضمن تشکر از جناب آقای شیرآلی عزیز بابت پیشنهاد باز کردن چنین تاپیکی و ارایه این مطالب برای تریدرها

[bears hunter]

news Reader

با سلام
دوستان همانطوریکه استاد نیما آزادی گفتن سعی کنید وابستگی به اندیکاتور پیدا نکنید .اندیکاتور نیوز ریدر همزمان اخبار اقتصادی مهم را بر روی چارت متاتریدر نمایش میدهد و قدرت تقریبی ارز ها را براورد میکند:
http://www.forex-tsd.com/news-signal-trading/14459-in10tion-newsreader.html

http://www.forex-tsd.com/attachments...9.99j-lite.ex4

thanks

[bears hunter]

سایت های مفید

http://www.rtfx.com/forex-analysis/f...ning-briefing/
http://www.fx360.com/techAnalysis

http://www.forexlive.com/economic-calendar

http://www.forexcrunch.com

http://www.forexfactory.com/calendar.php

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=302511

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=10378
Dar panah hagh

[bears hunter]

پترن

You can view two groups of Fibonacci patterns, bearish (down) and bullish (up). Simply click on the name to switch between the two groups.

• Bearish Fibonacci Patterns
• Bullish Fibonacci Patterns

The Bearish ABCD Pattern


Download The Bearish ABCD Pattern PDF
What Is It?

• A leading indicator that may help determine where and when to enter a short (sell) position or exit a long (buy) position
• A visual, geometric price/time pattern comprised of three consecutive price swings, or trends—it resembles a lightning bolt on price chart
• Reflects the common, rhythmic style in which the market often moves

Why Is It Important?

• Helps identify selling opportunities in nearly any market for almost any timeframe (intraday, swing, position)
• Highest-probability trade entry may be at the completion of the pattern (potential sell point D)
  • Retracement followed by an extension suggests a higher probability for another retracement to occur
• Helps to determine risk vs. reward prior to placing a trade
• May provide a stronger trade signal when it converges with other patterns — within the same timeframe or across multiple timeframes

Sounds Good... So How Do I Find It?

Each turning point (A, B, C, and D) represents a significant high or significant low on a price chart. These points define three consecutive price swings (trends) which make up each of the three pattern “legs.” These are referred to as the AB leg, the BC leg, and the CD leg.

Source: GFT

Trading is not an exact science, so really there are three different types of ABCD sell patterns. There are key Fibonacci ratio relationships to look for in the proportions between AB and CD, offering an approximate range of where and when the ABCD pattern may complete. This is why converging patterns help increase probabilities and allow traders to more accurately determine entries and exits.

The Bearish ABCD Pattern Rules

1. Point A is a significant low, and point B is a significant high. In the move from A to B there can be no lows below point A, and no highs above point B
2. Point C must be above point A. In the move from B to C there can be no highs above point B, and no lows below point C
   • Ideally, point C will be 61.8% or 78.6% of AB. (“Classic” ABCD pattern)
   • In strongly trending markets, BC may only be 38.2% or 50% of AB
3. Point D must be above point B. In the move from C to D there can be no lows below point C, and no highs above point D.
   • CD may equal AB. (AB=CD pattern)
   • CD may be 127.2% or 161.8% of BC (“Classic” ABCD pattern)
   • CD may be 127.2% or 161.8% of AB (ABCD Extension pattern)
4. There may be additional confirmation when the time of CD is in ratio and proportion to AB
   • CD may be equal to AB in time, or between 61.8%-161.8% of the amount of time it took the AB leg to complete
5. Watch for price gaps and/or wide-ranging bars in the CD leg, especially as market approaches point D
   • These may be signs of a potential strongly trending market. In this case, expect to see 127.2% or 161.8% price extensions of AB in determining CD completion

Example 1: USD/CHF, 1 hr

Source: GFT

Example 2: USD/JPY, 2 min

[bears hunter]

پترن-bullish

You can view two groups of Fibonacci patterns, bearish (down) and bullish (up). Simply click on the name to switch between the two groups.

• Bearish Fibonacci Patterns
• Bullish Fibonacci Patterns

The Bullish ABCD Pattern


Download The Bullish ABCD Pattern PDF
What Is It?

• A leading indicator that may help determine where and when to enter a long position, or exit a sell position
• A visual, geometric price/time pattern comprised of three consecutive price swings, or trends—it resembles a lightning bolt on a price chart
• Reflects the common, rhythmic style in which the market often moves

Why Is It Important?

• Helps identify buying opportunities in nearly any market for almost any timeframe
• All other bullish Fibonacci patterns are based on (include) the bullish ABCD pattern
• Highest-probability trade entry may be at the completion of the pattern (buy at point D)
  • Retracement followed by an extension suggests a higher probability for another retracement to occur
• Helps to determine risk vs. reward prior to placing a trade
• May provide a stronger trade signal when it converges with other patterns — within the same timeframe or across multiple timeframes

Sounds Good... So How Do I Find It?

Each turning point (A, B, C, and D) represents a significant high or significant low on a price chart. These points define three consecutive price swings, or trends, which make up each of the three pattern “legs.” These are referred to as the AB leg, the BC leg, and the CD leg.

Source: GFT

Trading is not an exact science, so really there are three different types of ABCD buy patterns. There are key Fibonacci ratio relationships to look for in the proportions between AB and CD, offering an approximate range of where and when the ABCD pattern may complete. This is why converging patterns help increase probabilities and allow traders to more accurately determine entries and exits.

The Bullish ABCD Pattern Rules

1. Point A is a significant high, and point B is a significant low. In the move from A to B there can be no highs above point A, and no lows below B
2. Point C must be lower than point A. In the move from B to C there can be no lows below point B, and no highs above point C
   • Ideally, point C will be 61.8% or 78.6% of AB (“Classic” ABCD pattern)
   • In strongly trending markets, BC may only be 38.2% or 50% of AB
3. Point D must be lower than point B (market successfully achieves a new low). In the move from C to D there can be no highs above point C, and no lows below point D
   • CD may equal AB (AB=CD pattern)
   • CD may be 127.2% or 161.8% of BC (“Classic” ABCD pattern)
   • CD may be 127.2% or 161.8% of AB (ABCD Extension pattern)
4. There may be additional confirmation when the time of CD is in ratio/proportion to AB
   • CD may equal AB in time, or CD may be between 61.8%-161.8% time of AB
5. Watch for price gaps and/or wide-ranging bars in the CD leg, especially as market approaches point D
   • These may be signs of a potential strongly trending market. In this case, a 127.2% or 161.8% ABCD extension pattern is more likely to occur.

Example 1: USD/CHF, 30 min

Source: GFT

Example 2: EUR/CHF, 15 min

[bears hunter]

Icwr

The ICWR phenomenon


Regardless of how strong a long-term market trend is, the market never moves only in the
direction of the long-term trend – there are always minor movements against the long-
term market trend. These deviations usually don’t last very long and after them the market
moves again in the direction of the long-term trend.
The major market movements in the direction of the long-term market trend are called
impulsive waves and the minor market movements against the long-term market trend
are called corrective waves.



منبع برای دانلود: http://www.forexfactory.com/attachment.php?attachmentid=473509&d=1273695357

[bears hunter]

Market Overview

منبع: fx360
Top Stories

• Euro rallies on China/Italy news but risk aversion flips flops the trade
• UK CPI 3.1% vs. 3.0%
• Nikkei up 0.95% Europe turns lower -0.99%
• Oil at $88/bbl
• Gold at $1819/oz.

Overnight Eco

• AUD NAB Business Confidence (AUG) -8 vs. 2
• GBP Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) 4.5% vs. 4.5%
• GBP Core Consumer Price Index (YoY) (AUG) 3.1% vs. 3.0%
• GBP Consumer Price Index (MoM) (AUG) 0.6% vs. 0.6%
• GBP RICS House Price Balance (AUG) -23% vs. -22%
• GBP Retail Price Index (AUG) 5.2% vs. 5.1%

Event Risk on Tap

• USD IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism (SEP)

Price Action

• USD/JPY remains below 77.00 despite rhetoric from offcials
• AUD/USD risk selloff sends it below 1.0300
• GBP/USD drops through 1.5800 as risk aversion kicks in
• EUR/USD flip flops to trade below 1.3600 as China story fizzles

A choppy night of trade in the currency market as Asia first took risk FX higher on the story that China may invest into Italian sovereign debt, but Chinese officials sounding a strong note of caution market enthusiasm quickly faded, European equities sunk by more than -1% and high beta currencies quickly followed suit with EUR/USD sinking below the 1.3600 level once again.
European markets remain in a state of flux as credit concerns continue to dog the euro and the unit is unlikely to see any near term relief unless some the prospect of Greek default diminishes. The pair continues to see support at the 1.3500 level but whether it holds or breaks that figure will depend to a large extent on whether European credit markets can stabilize this week.
On the economic front the calendar continues to be light with only a smattering of data on the docket. In Australia business confidence sunk to a two nad half year low dropping to -8 vs. 2 the month prior. This was the first time that confidence turned negative since the start of this year as slower economic growth and increased market volatility are starting to take their toll on business sentiment.
Australian labor markets have deteriorated markedly with employment actually contracting in the past two months as overall job growth has averaged only 2,800 new positions this year versus and average of 30,500 in 2010. The decline in labor demand is likely to weigh on consumer sentiment and curb spending for the foreseeable future.
Meanwhile in UK the CPI data printed largely in line with CPI rising 4.5% versus 4.6% eyed. The main catalysts for the rise were clothing , footwear, utilities and furniture prices. Although the pace of price gains has moderated inflation remains stubbornly high well above the BOE’s 2% target rate. The data therefore makes it difficult for UK policymakers to seriously entertain further QE measures even as UK economy shows serious signs of a slowdown in growth. Tomorrow’s monthly claimant count numbers will be watched carefully for any further signs of deterioration. Meanwhile cable dipped below the 1.5800 level on broad sell off in risk but managed to stabilize just below the figure , although it remains vulnerable to further declines on any selloff in equities.
In North America the calendar only carries the IDB economic optimism survey which is expected to rebound slightly from the lows set last month. With little meaningful data on the docket, currencies will continue to track equities with high beta FX likely yo-yoing for the rest of the day. The EUR/USD continues to bounce in 1.3700-1.3500 range as markets grapple with credit concerns.

[bears hunter]

Chart Patterns

A chart pattern is a distinct formation on a stock chart that creates a trading signal, or a sign of future price movements. Chartists use these patterns to identify current trends and trend reversals and to trigger buy and sell signals.


In the first section of this tutorial, we talked about the three assumptions of technical analysis, the third of which was that in technical analysis, history repeats itself. The theory behind chart patters is based on this assumption. The idea is that certain patterns are seen many times, and that these patterns signal a certain high probability move in a stock. Based on the historic trend of a chart pattern setting up a certain price movement, chartists look for these patterns to identify trading opportunities.

While there are general ideas and components to every chart pattern, there is no chart pattern that will tell you with 100% certainty where a security is headed. This creates some leeway and debate as to what a good pattern looks like, and is a major reason why charting is often seen as more of an art than a science. (For more insight, see Is finance an art or a science?)

There are two types of patterns within this area of technical analysis, reversal and continuation. A reversal pattern signals that a prior trend will reverse upon completion of the pattern. A continuation pattern, on the other hand, signals that a trend will continue once the pattern is complete. These patterns can be found over charts of any timeframe. In this section, we will review some of the more popular chart patterns. (To learn more, check out Continuation Patterns - Part 1, Part 2, Part 3 and Part 4.)

Head and Shoulders
This is one of the most popular and reliable chart patterns in technical analysis. Head and shoulders is a reversal chart pattern that when formed, signals that the security is likely to move against the previous trend. As you can see in Figure 1, there are two versions of the head and shoulders chart pattern. Head and shoulders top (shown on the left) is a chart pattern that is formed at the high of an upward movement and signals that the upward trend is about to end. Head and shoulders bottom, also known as inverse head and shoulders (shown on the right) is the lesser known of the two, but is used to signal a reversal in a downtrend.

Figure 1: Head and shoulders top is shown on the left. Head and shoulders bottom, or inverse head and shoulders, is on the right.

Both of these head and shoulders patterns are similar in that there are four main parts: two shoulders, a head and a neckline. Also, each individual head and shoulder is comprised of a high and a low. For example, in the head and shoulders top image shown on the left side in Figure 1, the left shoulder is made up of a high followed by a low. In this pattern, the neckline is a level of support or resistance. Remember that an upward trend is a period of successive rising highs and rising lows. The head and shoulders chart pattern, therefore, illustrates a weakening in a trend by showing the deterioration in the successive movements of the highs and lows. (To learn more, see Price Patterns - Part 2.)

Cup and Handle
A cup and handle chart is a bullish continuation pattern in which the upward trend has paused but will continue in an upward direction once the pattern is confirmed.

Figure 2

As you can see in Figure 2, this price pattern forms what looks like a cup, which is preceded by an upward trend. The handle follows the cup formation and is formed by a generally downward/sideways movement in the security's price. Once the price movement pushes above the resistance lines formed in the handle, the upward trend can continue. There is a wide ranging time frame for this type of pattern, with the span ranging from several months to more than a year.

Double Tops and Bottoms
This chart pattern is another well-known pattern that signals a trend reversal - it is considered to be one of the most reliable and is commonly used. These patterns are formed after a sustained trend and signal to chartists that the trend is about to reverse. The pattern is created when a price movement tests support or resistance levels twice and is unable to break through. This pattern is often used to signal intermediate and long-term trend reversals.

Figure 3: A double top pattern is shown on the left, while a double bottom pattern is shown on the right.

In the case of the double top pattern in Figure 3, the price movement has twice tried to move above a certain price level. After two unsuccessful attempts at pushing the price higher, the trend reverses and the price heads lower. In the case of a double bottom (shown on the right), the price movement has tried to go lower twice, but has found support each time. After the second bounce off of the support, the security enters a new trend and heads upward. (For more in-depth reading, see The Memory Of Price and Price Patterns - Part 4.)

Triangles
Triangles are some of the most well-known chart patterns used in technical analysis. The three types of triangles, which vary in construct and implication, are the symmetrical triangle, ascending and descending triangle. These chart patterns are considered to last anywhere from a couple of weeks to several months.

Figure 4

The symmetrical triangle in Figure 4 is a pattern in which two trendlines converge toward each other. This pattern is neutral in that a breakout to the upside or downside is a confirmation of a trend in that direction. In an ascending triangle, the upper trendline is flat, while the bottom trendline is upward sloping. This is generally thought of as a bullish pattern in which chartists look for an upside breakout. In a descending triangle, the lower trendline is flat and the upper trendline is descending. This is generally seen as a bearish pattern where chartists look for a downside breakout.

Flag and Pennant
These two short-term chart patterns are continuation patterns that are formed when there is a sharp price movement followed by a generally sideways price movement. This pattern is then completed upon another sharp price movement in the same direction as the move that started the trend. The patterns are generally thought to last from one to three weeks.

Figure 5

As you can see in Figure 5, there is little difference between a pennant and a flag. The main difference between these price movements can be seen in the middle section of the chart pattern. In a pennant, the middle section is characterized by converging trendlines, much like what is seen in a symmetrical triangle. The middle section on the flag pattern, on the other hand, shows a channel pattern, with no convergence between the trendlines. In both cases, the trend is expected to continue when the price moves above the upper trendline.

Wedge
The wedge chart pattern can be either a continuation or reversal pattern. It is similar to a symmetrical triangle except that the wedge pattern slants in an upward or downward direction, while the symmetrical triangle generally shows a sideways movement. The other difference is that wedges tend to form over longer periods, usually between three and six months.

Figure 6

The fact that wedges are classified as both continuation and reversal patterns can make reading signals confusing. However, at the most basic level, a falling wedge is bullish and a rising wedge is bearish. In Figure 6, we have a falling wedge in which two trendlines are converging in a downward direction. If the price was to rise above the upper trendline, it would form a continuation pattern, while a move below the lower trendline would signal a reversal pattern.

Gaps
A gap in a chart is an empty space between a trading period and the following trading period. This occurs when there is a large difference in prices between two sequential trading periods. For example, if the trading range in one period is between $25 and $30 and the next trading period opens at $40, there will be a large gap on the chart between these two periods. Gap price movements can be found on bar charts and candlestick charts but will not be found on point and figure or basic line charts. Gaps generally show that something of significance has happened in the security, such as a better-than-expected earnings announcement.

There are three main types of gaps, breakaway, runaway (measuring) and exhaustion. A breakaway gap forms at the start of a trend, a runaway gap forms during the middle of a trend and an exhaustion gap forms near the end of a trend. (For more insight, read Playing The Gap.)

Triple Tops and Bottoms
Triple tops and triple bottoms are another type of reversal chart pattern in chart analysis. These are not as prevalent in charts as head and shoulders and double tops and bottoms, but they act in a similar fashion. These two chart patterns are formed when the price movement tests a level of support or resistance three times and is unable to break through; this signals a reversal of the prior trend.

Figure 7

Confusion can form with triple tops and bottoms during the formation of the pattern because they can look similar to other chart patterns. After the first two support/resistance tests are formed in the price movement, the pattern will look like a double top or bottom, which could lead a chartist to enter a reversal position too soon.


Read more: http://www.investopedia.com/universi...#ixzz1XqfZJsu6

[bears hunter]

Top Stories-14Sep

Top Stories

• Barrosso comments lift FX after French bank downgrade
• UK Claimant Count better but ILO employment drops
• Nikkei off -1.17% Europe up .75%
• Oil at $89/bbl
• Gold at $1830/oz.last

Overnight Eco

• AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (SEP) 8.1% vs. -3.5%
• JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL F) 0.4% vs. 0.6%
• CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (AUG) -1.2% vs. -0.3%
• EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (JUL)
• GBP Jobless Claims Change (AUG) 20.3K vs. 34.8K
• GBP Claimant Count Rate (AUG) 2.8%
• GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (JUL) 7.9%

Event Risk on Tap

• USD Advance Retail Sales (AUG)
• USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)
• USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (AUG)
• USD Producer Price Index (MoM) (AUG)
• USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (AUG)
• USD Retail Sales Less Autos (AUG)
• CAD Capacity Utilization Rate (2Q)

Price Action

• USD/JPY remains below 77.00
• AUD/USD dips below 1.0200 on risk aversion flows
• GBP/USD trades near 1.5750 as labor data mixed
• EUR/USD rebounds to 1.3650 after Barrosso comments

Risk FX recovered some of its losses in early European trade after European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said options for the introduction of euro area bonds would soon be presented. Earlier in Asian session high beta currencies came under sustained selling pressure after Moody downgraded Soc Gen and Credit Agricole.
Moody's cut SocGen's debt and deposit ratings by one notch to Aa3 from Aa2. The ratings service said that although SocGen's "capital base currently provides an adequate cushion to support its Greek, Portuguese, and Irish exposures ... it will extend its review for downgrade of the C+ BFSR (Bank Financial Strength Rating) to consider the implications of the potentially persistent fragility in the bank financing markets, given its continued reliance on wholesale funding." For Credit Agricole, Moody's downgraded its BFSR by one notch to C from C+, and cut its long-term debt and deposit ratings by one notch to Aa2 from Aa1.
The move is a reflection of the concern regarding the stability of the European financial sector in the wake of the mounting problems in Greece. Greece remains the focal point of trade as fears of its possible bankruptcy and the unknown ramifications of such an event on the European financial system continue to push risk FX lower. Today’s meeting between French, German and Greek officials could provide some relief to the market if officials indicate that bailout funds will be forthcoming, but the mood remains grim as risk aversion threatens to push high beta currencies to fresh monthly lows as the day proceeds.
Meanwhile on the economic front UK labor data showed the largest rise in unemployment in 2 years as public sector jobs were cut and the economy failed to produce enough private sector demand to offset the losses. Nevertheless the data was not nearly as dour as anticipated with claimant count rolls rising less than forecast at 20.3K versus 34.8K eyed. Still this was the sixth consecutive month of job losses for the UK economy indicating that growth in H2 of this year is likely to be lackluster at best. Average earning rose by 2.8% versus 2.6% projected but were well below the inflation rate. Furthermore ex-bonus wages rose only 2.1% versus 2.3% eyed suggesting that BOE has little to fear from second round effects.
Overall the UK labor data showed further contraction, albeit at a slower pace than forecast indicating that the situation remains negative but is not yet dire and therefore may keep the BOE on sidelines for a while longer. Cable rose slightly on the news recovering from its Asian session lows of 1.5707 to trade 1.5770 in the aftermath of the release. The currency continues to trade off risk flows rather than economic news as traders become increasingly concerned that UK banks may face exposure to the European credit problems. Therefore the unit is likely to take its cues from the continent today as markets await the results of the Merkel/Sarkozy meeting with Greek finance minister.
In North American session the calendar carries US PPI data and Retail Sales both of which are expected to dip slightly. Retail Sales are expected to decline to 0.2% from 0.5% the month prior but will likely have little impact on trade unless they print negative for the month, intensifying risk aversion flows. In short, events in Europe rather economic data are likely to continue to drive trade today until the situation in Greece reaches some sort of near term resolution.
FX Upcoming

Currency	GMT	EST	Release	Expected	Prior
USD	12:30	8:30	Advance Retail Sales (AUG)		0.5%
USD	12:30	8:30	Producer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)		7.2%
USD	12:30	8:30	Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (AUG)		2.5%
USD	12:30	8:30	Producer Price Index (MoM) (AUG)		0.2%
USD	12:30	8:30	Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (AUG)		0.4%
USD	12:30	8:30	Retail Sales Less Autos (AUG)		0.5%
CAD	12:30	8:30	Capacity Utilization Rate (2Q)		79.0%

[bears hunter]

Credit Concerns Continue to Dominate FX Trade

Top Stories

• Barrosso comments lift FX after French bank downgrade
• UK Claimant Count better but ILO employment drops
• Nikkei off -1.17% Europe up .75%
• Oil at $89/bbl
• Gold at $1830/oz.last

Overnight Eco

• AUD Westpac Consumer Confidence (SEP) 8.1% vs. -3.5%
• JPY Industrial Production (YoY) (JUL F) 0.4% vs. 0.6%
• CHF Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (AUG) -1.2% vs. -0.3%
• EUR Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (JUL)
• GBP Jobless Claims Change (AUG) 20.3K vs. 34.8K
• GBP Claimant Count Rate (AUG) 2.8%
• GBP ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (JUL) 7.9%

Event Risk on Tap

• USD Advance Retail Sales (AUG)
• USD Producer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)
• USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (AUG)
• USD Producer Price Index (MoM) (AUG)
• USD Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (AUG)
• USD Retail Sales Less Autos (AUG)
• CAD Capacity Utilization Rate (2Q)

Price Action

• USD/JPY remains below 77.00
• AUD/USD dips below 1.0200 on risk aversion flows
• GBP/USD trades near 1.5750 as labor data mixed
• EUR/USD rebounds to 1.3650 after Barrosso comments

Risk FX recovered some of its losses in early European trade after European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said options for the introduction of euro area bonds would soon be presented. Earlier in Asian session high beta currencies came under sustained selling pressure after Moody downgraded Soc Gen and Credit Agricole.
Moody's cut SocGen's debt and deposit ratings by one notch to Aa3 from Aa2. The ratings service said that although SocGen's "capital base currently provides an adequate cushion to support its Greek, Portuguese, and Irish exposures ... it will extend its review for downgrade of the C+ BFSR (Bank Financial Strength Rating) to consider the implications of the potentially persistent fragility in the bank financing markets, given its continued reliance on wholesale funding." For Credit Agricole, Moody's downgraded its BFSR by one notch to C from C+, and cut its long-term debt and deposit ratings by one notch to Aa2 from Aa1.
The move is a reflection of the concern regarding the stability of the European financial sector in the wake of the mounting problems in Greece. Greece remains the focal point of trade as fears of its possible bankruptcy and the unknown ramifications of such an event on the European financial system continue to push risk FX lower. Today’s meeting between French, German and Greek officials could provide some relief to the market if officials indicate that bailout funds will be forthcoming, but the mood remains grim as risk aversion threatens to push high beta currencies to fresh monthly lows as the day proceeds.
Meanwhile on the economic front UK labor data showed the largest rise in unemployment in 2 years as public sector jobs were cut and the economy failed to produce enough private sector demand to offset the losses. Nevertheless the data was not nearly as dour as anticipated with claimant count rolls rising less than forecast at 20.3K versus 34.8K eyed. Still this was the sixth consecutive month of job losses for the UK economy indicating that growth in H2 of this year is likely to be lackluster at best. Average earning rose by 2.8% versus 2.6% projected but were well below the inflation rate. Furthermore ex-bonus wages rose only 2.1% versus 2.3% eyed suggesting that BOE has little to fear from second round effects.
Overall the UK labor data showed further contraction, albeit at a slower pace than forecast indicating that the situation remains negative but is not yet dire and therefore may keep the BOE on sidelines for a while longer. Cable rose slightly on the news recovering from its Asian session lows of 1.5707 to trade 1.5770 in the aftermath of the release. The currency continues to trade off risk flows rather than economic news as traders become increasingly concerned that UK banks may face exposure to the European credit problems. Therefore the unit is likely to take its cues from the continent today as markets await the results of the Merkel/Sarkozy meeting with Greek finance minister.
In North American session the calendar carries US PPI data and Retail Sales both of which are expected to dip slightly. Retail Sales are expected to decline to 0.2% from 0.5% the month prior but will likely have little impact on trade unless they print negative for the month, intensifying risk aversion flows. In short, events in Europe rather economic data are likely to continue to drive trade today until the situation in Greece reaches some sort of near term resolution.
FX Upcoming

Currency	GMT	EST	Release	Expected	Prior
USD	12:30	8:30	Advance Retail Sales (AUG)		0.5%
USD	12:30	8:30	Producer Price Index (YoY) (AUG)		7.2%
USD	12:30	8:30	Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (AUG)		2.5%
USD	12:30	8:30	Producer Price Index (MoM) (AUG)		0.2%
USD	12:30	8:30	Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (AUG)		0.4%
USD	12:30	8:30	Retail Sales Less Autos (AUG)		0.5%
CAD	12:30	8:30	Capacity Utilization Rate (2Q)		79.0%

[bears hunter]

Chart of the Day

The Australian dollar “the Aussie” has been selling off in response to the Euro debt crisis which is no surprise, though the individual fundamentals are not as bad as they seem. The AUD/USD pair is sitting on S2 daily pivot support at a critical level at 1.02.
While the pair is likely to continue to trade on risk themes, recent data showed that consumer confidence figures came in much higher than last month despite lowered housing starts. While some might say there is a bit of a housing bubble going on “down under”, a slowing economy may not necessarily be a bad thing.
If the RBA keeps interest rates steady at 4.75%, they will remain a desirable place to invest despite the risk in the marketplace.

[bears hunter]

USD/CAD Near Parity

The USD/CAD pair eclipsed parity before falling back below and trading lower on Dollar weakness. This is the first time this has occurred since the beginning of the year as risk aversion and a declining US economy are factors causing Loonie weakness.
The Canadian dollar may continue to weaken as the global economy cools, especially here in the US. Canada relies on the US to buy its goods and services so if demand in the US slows, so will the Canadian economy. In addition, the Loonie has a high correlation to oil prices, which if falling due to a global slowdown and lack of demand, will put added pressure on the Canadian currency.

[bears hunter]

USDCAD: Flag Pattern Points to Gains Ahead

USDCAD appears to have formed a Flag chart pattern, a setup typically indicative of continuation in the trend that was in place before a period of consolidation (in this case, bullish). We will look for confirmation that the larger move higher has resumed on a break of Flag resistance – now at 0.9904 – to actively search out buying opportunities. A breakout sees initial Fibonacci extension resistance at 0.9955.

[bears hunter]

Crowd Sentiment

Crowd Sentiment Favors Euro Losses

EURUSD –Traders remain aggressively long the Euro against the US Dollar, giving consistent contrarian signal that the pair may continue lower through near-term trade. Yet we should likewise warn that FX Options sentiment has hit its most bearish extremes on the EURUSD in at least 7 years, warning of a potential for a larger topside correction. The conflicting signals are obviously difficult to reconcile, and we may have to wait and see whether the EURUSD is able to break below key multi-month lows.
The ratio of long to short positions in the EURUSD stands at 1.73 as nearly 63% of traders are long. In detail, long positions are 2.8% higher than yesterday and 23.3% stronger since last week. Short positions are 13.9% higher than yesterday and 18.6% weaker since last week. The fact that traders are long and continue buying gives us contrarian signal the EURUSD may continue lower.

[bears hunter]

Forex Trading: USDCAD Falls. Head And Shoulder Formation

Forex Trading: USDCAD Falls. Head And Shoulder Formation

There is market chatter of how the USDCAD has broken below neckline support of a head and shoulders formation. A break is supposed to lead to a sharp move down. The target is equal to the distance from the neck to the top of the head (in this case from 0.9828 to 1.0024 or 196 pips), subtracted from the right neckline (from 0.9844). If that measurement is fulfilled, the price would reach to 0.9650