آخرین مطالب مفید و آموزشی از سایت های خارجی معتبر در زمینه آنلاین تردینگ

[bears hunter]

Hosoda strongly believed that the market was a direct reflection of human group dynamics or behavior

[aligh]

The Psychology of Commodity Price Movement
The price of a futures contract is the result of a decision made by both a buyer and a seller. The buyer believes prices will go higher; the seller feels prices will decline. These decisions are represented by a trade at an exact price.
Once the buyer and seller make their trade, their influence in the market is spent — except for the opposite reaction they will ultimately have when they close the trade. Thus, there are two aspects to every trade: 1) each trade must ultimately have an opposite reaction on the market, and 2) the trade will influence other traders.
Each trader's reaction to price movements can be generalized into the reactions of three basic groups of traders who are always present in the market:
1) traders who have long positions
2) those who hold short positions; and
3) those who have not taken a position but soon will
Traders in the third group have mixed views on the market's probable direction. Some are bullish while others are bearish, but a lack of positive conviction has kept them out of the market. Therefore, they have no vested interest in the market's direction.
The impact of human nature on futures prices can perhaps best be seen by examining changing market psychology as a typical market moves through a complete cycle from price low to price low.
Classic price pattern
Let's assume prices trade within a relatively narrow trading range (between points A and B on the chart). Recognizing the sideways price movement, the "longs" might buy additional contracts if the price advances above the recent trading range. They may even enter stop orders to buy at point B, to add to their position should the trend show signs of going higher...
...but, by the same token, recognizing prices might decline below the recent trading range and move lower, they might also enter stop loss orders below the market at A to limit their loss.
The "shorts" have exactly the opposite reaction to the market. If the price advances above the recent trading range, many of them might enter stop loss orders to buy above point B to limit losses. And they may add to their position if the price should decline below point A with orders to sell additional contracts on a stop below point A.

The third group is not in the market - instead, they are sitting on the sidelines watching for a signal indicating whether they should go long or short. This group may have stop orders to buy above point B, because presumably the price trend would begin to indicate an upward bias if point B were penetrated. They may also have standing orders to sell below point A for converse reasons.
Now, let's assume the market advances to point C.
If the trading range between points A and B has been relatively narrow and the time period of the lateral movement relatively long, then the accumulated buy stops above the market could be quite numerous. Also, as the market breaks above point B, brokers contact their clients with the news – resulting in a stream of market orders. As this flurry of buyers becomes satisfied and profit-taking from previous long positions causes the market to dip from the high point of C to point D, another distinct attitude begins working in the market.
Part of the first group that went long between points A and B did not buy additional contracts as the market rallied to point C. Now they may be willing to add to their position "on a dip." Consequently, buy orders trickle in from these traders as the market drifts down.
Traders who established short positions in the original A-B trading range have now seen prices advance to point C, then decline a bit toward the price at which they originally sold. If they did not cover their short positions on a buy stop above point B, they may be more than willing to "cover on any further dip" to minimize the loss.
And those traders not yet in the market will place price orders just below the market with the idea of "getting in on a dip."
The net effect of the rally from A to C is a psychological change in all three groups. The result is a different tone to the market, where some support could be expected from all three groups on dips. (Support on a chart is price level at which buying of a futures contract occurs in sufficient enough volume to halt a decline in price.) As this support is strengthened by an increase in market orders and a raising of buy orders, the market once again advances toward point C. Then, as the market gathers momentum and rallies above point C toward point E, the psychology again changes subtly.
The first group of long traders may now have enough profit to pyramid additional contracts with their profits. In any case, as the market advances, their enthusiasm grows and they set their sights on higher price objectives. Psychologically, they have the market advantage.
The original group who sold short between A and B and who have not yet covered are all carrying increasing losses. Their general attitude is negative because they are losing money and confidence. Their hopes fade as their losses mount. Some of this group begin liquidating their short positions either with stops or market orders. Some reverse their position and go long.
The group which has still not entered the market – either because their orders to buy the market were never reached or because they had hesitated to see whether the market was actually moving higher – begins to "buy at the market."
Remember that even if a number of traders have not entered the market because of hesitation, their attitude is still bullish. And perhaps they are even kicking themselves for not getting in earlier. As for those who sold out previously-established long positions at a profit only to see the market move even higher, their attitude still favors the long side. They may also be among those who are looking to buy on any further dip.
So, with each dip the market should find the support of:
1) traders with long positions who are adding to their positions
2) traders who are short the market and want to buy back their shorts "if the market will only back down some"; and
3) new traders without a position in the market who want to get aboard what they consider a full-fledged bull market
This rationale results in price action that features one prominent high after another and each prominent reactionary low is higher than the previous low. In a broad sense, it should appear as an upward series of waves reaching successively higher highs and higher lows – or, in other words, a general upward trend.
But at some point the psychology again subtly shifts. The first group with long positions and fat, unrealized profits is no longer willing to add to its positions. In fact they are looking for a place to "take profits." The second group of battered traders with short positions has finally been worn down to a nub of die-hard shorts who absolutely refuse to cover their short positions. They are no longer a supporting element, eagerly waiting to buy the market on dips.
The third group, who never quite got aboard the up-move, become unwilling to buy because they feel the greatest part of the upside move has been missed. They consider the risk on the downside too great when compared to the now-limited upside potential. In fact, they may be looking for a place to "short the market and ride it back down."
When the market demonstrates a noticeable lack of support on a dip that "carries too far to be bullish," this is the first signal of a reversal in psychology. The decline from point I to point J is the classic example of such a dip. This decline signals a new tone to the market. The support on dips becomes resistance on rallies, and a more two-sided market action develops. (Resistance is the opposite of support. Resistance on a chart is the price level where selling pressure is expected to act like a ceiling, stopping advances and possibly turning prices lower.)
The downturn
Now the picture has changed. As the market begins to advance from point J to point K, traders with previously-established long positions take profits by selling out. Most of the hard-nosed traders with short positions have covered their shorts, so they add no significant new buying impetus to the market. In fact, having witnessed the recent long decline, they may be adding to their short positions.
If the rally back toward the contract highs fails to establish new highs, this failure is quickly noticed by professional traders as a signal the bull market has run its course. This is even more true if the rally at point K carries only up to the approximate level of the rally top at point G.
If the open interest also declines during the rally from J to K, it is another sign it was not new buying that caused the rally but short covering.
As profit-taking and new short-selling forces the market to decline from point K, the next critical point is the reactionary low point at J. A major bear signal is flashed if the market penetrates this prominent low (support) following an abortive attempt to establish new contract highs.
Put simply, if the temporary support level formed at point L is lower than that of point J, odds are the overall trend will continue much lower.
In the vernacular of chartists, a head-and-shoulders reversal pattern has been completed. But rather than simply explaining away price patterns with names, it is important to understand how the psychology of the market action at different points causes the market to respond as it does. It also explains why certain points are quite significant.
In a bear market, the attitudes of the traders would be reversed. Each decline would find the bears more confident and prosperous and the bulls more depressed and threadbare. With the psychology diametrically opposite, the pattern completely reverses itself to form a series of lower highs and lower lows.
Of course, at some point the bears become unwilling to add to their previously-established short positions. Those who were already long the market and had refused to sell higher would eventually be reduced to a hard core of traders who had their jaws set and refused to sell out. Traders not in the market who were perhaps unsuccessfully attempting to short the market at higher levels will begin to find the long side of the market more attractive. The first rally that "carries too high to be bearish" signals another possible trend reversal – and potential shift back into an upward trend.
And so the market continues on shifting between upward and downward cycles...
With this basic understanding of market psychology through three phases of a market, a trader is better equipped to appreciate the significance of all technical price patterns. No one expects to establish short positions at the high or long positions at the low, but development of a feel for market psychology is the beginning of the quest for trades that even hindsight could not improve upon.
When you analyze charts, approach them with the idea that they reflect human ideas about prices that are the result and the struggle between supply and demand forces. Your attitude and ability to judge market psychology will determine your success at chart analysis. Unexpected occurrences can change price trends abruptly, and without warning. Also, some of the chart formations may be hard to visualize. You'll sometimes need a good imagination as well.

[bears hunter]

best Moving

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[qwertyui]

ممنون از مطالب بسیار مفید

[komohi]

How To Use Volume To Improve Your Trading

How To Use Volume To Improve Your Trading


by Cory Mitchell


Volume is a measure of how much of a given financial asset has been traded in a given period of time. It is a very powerful tool, but it's often overlooked because it is such a simple indicator. Volume information can be found just about anywhere, but few traders or investors know how to use it to increase their profits and minimize risk.
For every buyer there needs to be someone who sold them the shares they bought, just as there must be a buyer in order for a seller to get rid of his or her shares. This battle between buyers and sellers for the best price on all different timeframes creates movement while longer term technical and fundamental factors play out. Using volume to analyze stocks (or any financial asset) can bolster profits and also reduce risk.
Basic Guidelines for Using Volume

When analyzing volume, there are guidelines we can use to determine the strength or weakness of a move. As traders, we are more inclined to join strong moves and take no part in moves that show weakness - or we may even watch for an entry in the opposite direction of a weak move. These guidelines do not hold true in all situations, but they are a good general aid in trading decisions.
Volume and Market Interest

A rising market should see rising volume. Buyers require increasing numbers and increasing enthusiasm in order to keep pushing prices higher. Increasing price and decreasing volume show lack of interest and this is a warning of a potential reversal. This can be hard to wrap your mind around, but the simple fact is that a price drop (or rise) on little volume is not a strong signal. A price drop (or rise) on large volume is a stronger signal that something in the stock has fundamentally changed.

Figure 1: A GLD daily chart showing rising price and rising volume.
Exhaustion Moves and Volume

In a rising or falling market we can see exhaustion moves. These are generally sharp moves in price combined with a sharp increase in volume, which signal the potential end of a trend. Participants who waited and are afraid of missing more of the move pile in at market tops, exhausting the number of buyers. At a market bottom, falling prices eventually force out large numbers of traders, resulting in volatility and increased volume. We will see a decrease in volume after the spike in these situations, but how volume continues to play out over the next days, weeks and months can be analyzed by using the other volume guidelines. (For related reading, take a look at 3 Key Signs Of A Market Top.)

Figure 2: A GLD daily chart showing a volume spike indicating a change of direction.
Bullish Signs

Volume can be very useful in identifying bullish signs. For example, imagine volume increases on a price decline and then price moves higher, followed by a move back lower. If price on the move back lower stays higher than the previous low, and volume is diminished on second decline, then this is usually interpreted as a bullish sign.

Figure 3: A SPY daily chart showing a lack of selling interest on the second decline.
Volume and Price Reversals

After a long price move higher or lower, if price begins to range with little price movement and heavy volume, often it indicates a reversal.
Volume and Breakouts Vs. False Breakouts

On the initial breakout from a range or other chart pattern, a rise in volume indicates strength in the move. Little change in volume or declining volume on a breakout indicates lack of interest and a higher probability for a false breakout.

Figure 4: A QQQQ daily chart showing increasing volume on breakout.
Volume History

Volume should be looked at as relative to recent history. Comparing today to volume 50 years ago provides irrelevant data. The more recent the data sets, the more relevant they are likely to be.
Volume Indicators

Volume indicators are mathematical formulas that are visually represented in most commonly used charting platforms. Each indicator uses a slightly different formula and, therefore, a trader should find the indicator that works best for their particular market approach. Indicators are not required, but they can aid in the trading decision process. There are many volume indicators; the following will provide a sampling of how several can be used.
On Balance Volume (OBV)

OBV is a simple but effective indicator. Starting from an arbitrary number, volume is added when the market finishes higher, or volume is subtracted when the market finishes lower. This provides a running total and shows which stocks are being accumulated. It can also show divergences, such as when a price rises but volume is increasing at a slower rate or even beginning to fall. Figure 5 shows that OBV is increasing and confirming the price rise in Apple Inc's (AAPL) share price. (For more on the OBV, see On-Balance Volume: The Way To Smart Money.)

Figure 5: An APPL daily chart showing how OBV confirms the price move.
Chaikin Money Flow

Rising prices should be accompanied by rising volume, so this formula focuses on expanding volume when prices finish in their upper or lower portion of their daily range and then provides value for the corresponding strength. When closes are in the upper portion of the range and volume is expanding, the values will be high; when closes are in the lower portion of the range, values will be negative.
Chaikin money flow can be used as a short term indicator because it oscillates, but it is more commonly used for seeing divergence. Figure 6 shows how volume was not confirming the continual lower lows (price) in AAPL stock. Chaikin money flow showed a divergence that resulted in a move back higher in the stock. (For related information, see Discovering Keltner Channels and the Chaikin Oscillator.)

Figure 6: An AAPL 10 minute chart showing divergence that indicates a potential reversal.
Klinger Volume Oscillator

Fluctuation above and below the zero line can be used to aid other trading signals. The Klinger volume oscillator sums the accumulation (buying) and distribution (selling) volumes for a given time period. In Figure 7 we see a quite negative number - this is in the midst of an overall uptrend - followed by a rise above the trigger or zero line. The volume indicator stayed positive throughout the price trend. A drop below the trigger level in January 2011 signalled the short term reversal. Price stabilized, however, and that is why indicators should generally not be used in isolation. Most indicators give more accurate readings when they are used in association with other signals.

Figure 7: An APPL daily chart showing how Klinger confirms the uptrend.
The Bottom Line

Volume is an extremely useful tool and, as you can see, there are many ways to use it. There are basic guidelines that can be used to assess market strength or weakness, as well as to check if volume is confirming a price move or signalling a reversal. Indicators can be used to help in the decision process. In short, volume is a not a precise entry and exit tool, however, with the help of indicators, entry and exit signals can be created by looking at price action, volume and a volume indicator.

[bears hunter]

December 13, 2011	Subscribe to Lessons From the Pros:

FOREX ARTICLE

How to Let Your Winners Run <iframe src="http://www.facebook.com/plugins/like.php?href=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.tradingacademy.com% 2Flessons%2F20111213%2Fforex_article.htm&layout=st andard&show_faces=false&width=450&action=like&colo rscheme=light&height=50" scrolling="no" frameborder="0" allowtransparency="true" style="border-top-style: none; border-right-style: none; border-bottom-style: none; border-left-style: none; border-width: initial; border-color: initial; overflow-x: hidden; overflow-y: hidden; width: 450px; height: 50px; "></iframe> <map name="lftp_icon_email_printc4f88de7"></map>

By Rick Wright, Online Trading Academy Forex, Futures and Equities Instructor Hello traders! In nearly every Lessons From the Pros newsletter, we discuss the basics that all successful traders have in common - taking your small losses and letting your winners run. How you come to the decision of exactly when and where to get into a trade, based on your own preferred technical analysis strategies, will be as diverse as the number of traders out there! It could be a moving average crossover, supply or demand zone, overbought on a CCI in a downtrend, etc, etc. What isn't discussed very often is how to let your winning trades run. Figure 1 On this GBPUSD four hour chart, we have a classic version of our rally-base-drop pattern (yes, easy to see after the fact!). Let's say our trader went short in our supply zone at the point marked "1." Obviously, our stop loss would be above the supply zone, with our first target at the level 1.5894. At that time, having a profit target of the demand zone near 1.5428 would have been a bit optimistic. After price has broken the 1.5894 level, we can then determine that a downtrend has begun (at the point marked "2"). If our trader had held onto his position instead of locking in his profits at the original target, he would be targeting the next level of 1.5723. (On this chart, I have used support/resistance lines to show our minor supply and demand zones IN BETWEEN our major supply and demand zones for clarity sake. If you prefer to only use the zone boxes instead of the lines, that would be acceptable as well.)At the point marked "3," we had a classic retest of our previous support level (what was support becomes resistance, what was demand becomes supply). Point 3 was also hitting our 50 period exponential moving average – the retest intersection of the moving average and our supply level gives us a high probability, low risk trend following trade. Selling at point 3 would give us an original profit target of the 1.5723 level, with later targets of 1.5628, 1.5535, and maybe even the 1.5428 levels. So, the question is, why do we have much larger targets at point 3 than at point 1? The reason is that at point 3, THE DOWNTREND HAS BEGUN. At point 1, we are still in our basing action and don't know if we will have a drop or a rally out of this base. Once our trend has been established, we expect it to continue until it doesn't. Do we ever KNOW when the trend will end? No, but we would have a reasonable expectation that the demand zone that started our original rally will stop this trend.So, how can we let our winning trade continue to run? There are several techniques. The most obvious is to let a moving average keep us in the trade – when our price action finally closes ABOVE a downward sloping moving average, we will exit. (Closing BELOW an upward sloping moving average will keep us in an uptrend.) Figure 2 On this zoomed in GBPUSD chart, waiting for that close would have taken us out of our trade at point 1 near the 1.5609 level. The next technique would be let our trendline take us out of our trade. The same closing rules apply to trendlines as to moving averages. On this chart, that would have been at point 2 near the 1.5597 level. The exits on these two different techniques are usually different; sometimes one works better than the other - there isn't a fixed rule on which is better.The third technique is to move your stop above the previous swing high every time we have a new swing low. Figure 3 This is the same GBPUSD chart, with the trendline and moving average removed. When price action at label 1 breaks the previous swing low, your stop loss is moved to the previous swing high which is marked 2. At new swing low 3, the stop is moved to 4; at swing low 5, the stop is moved above swing high 6; at low 7, the stop is moved to above swing high 8. This technique would have taken us out of the trade at the red arrow, near price 1.5567. In this entire example, obviously, the top of the major demand zone in the yellow shaded area would have taken us out at 1.5428. Looking in the past, the best technique is always obvious!While we are in a trend, our best exit style isn't known. Our job is to let our winners run, and using one of these techniques will help us stay in some longer trend moves when they happen. Because we don't KNOW when a longer term trend will happen, we need to have a set of rules that will allow us to recognize and take advantage of these higher pip trades! Paper trade each technique, and choose one that suits your personality.Until next time, let those winners run!Rick Wright rwright@tradingacademy.com

[bears hunter]

Simple Moving Averages

A simple moving average is the simplest type of moving average (DUH!). Basically, a simple moving average is calculated by adding up the last "X" period's closing prices and then dividing that number by X.
Confused???
Don't worry, we'll make it crystal clear.
If you plotted a 5 period simple moving average on a 1-hour chart, you would add up the closing prices for the last 5 hours, and then divide that number by 5. Voila! You have the average closing price over the last five hours! String those average prices together and you get a moving average!
If you were to plot a 5-period simple moving average on a 10-minute chart, you would add up the closing prices of the last 50 minutes and then divide that number by 5.
If you were to plot a 5 period simple moving average on a 30 minute chart, you would add up the closing prices of the last 150 minutes and then divide that number by 5.
If you were to plot the 5 period simple moving average on the 4 hr. chart... Okay, okay, we know, we know. You get the picture!
Most charting packages will do all the calculations for you. The reason we just bored you (yawn!) with a "how to" on calculating simple moving averages is because it's important to understand so that you know how to edit and tweak the indicator.
Understanding how an indicator works means you can adjust and create different strategies as the market environment changes.
Now, just like almost any other indicator out there, moving averages operate with a delay. Because you are taking the averages of past price history, you are really only seeing the general path of the recent past and the general direction of "future" short term price action.
Disclaimer: Moving averages will not turn you into Ms. Cleo the psychic!
Here is an example of how moving averages smooth out the price action.

On chart above, we've plotted three different SMAs on the 1-hour chart of USD/CHF. As you can see, the longer the SMA period is, the more it lags behind the price.
Notice how the 62 SMA is farther away from the current price than the 30 and 5 SMAs.
This is because the 62 SMA adds up the closing prices of the last 62 periods and divides it by 62. The longer period you use for the SMA, the slower it is to react to the price movement.

The SMAs in this chart show you the overall sentiment of the market at this point in time. Here, we can see that the pair is trending.
Instead of just looking at the current price of the market, the moving averages give us a broader view, and we can now gauge the general direction of its future price. With the use of SMAs, we can tell whether a pair is trending up, trending down, or just ranging.
There is one problem with the simple moving average and it's that they are susceptible to spikes. When this happens, this can give us false signals. We might think that a new trend may be developing but in reality, nothing changed.
In the next lesson, we will show you what we mean, and also introduce you to another type of moving average to avoid this problem.


Read more: http://www.babypips.com/school/simpl...#ixzz1gjvbXu9u
Read more: http://www.babypips.com/school/simpl...#ixzz1gjvCrcEa

[bears hunter]

Exponential Moving Average

As we said in the previous lesson, simple moving averages can be distorted by spikes. We'll start with an example.
Let's say we plot a 5-period SMA on the daily chart of EUR/USD.

The closing prices for the last 5 days are as follows:
Day 1: 1.3172
Day 2: 1.3231
Day 3: 1.3164
Day 4: 1.3186
Day 5: 1.3293
The simple moving average would be calculated as follows:
(1.3172 + 1.3231 + 1.3164 + 1.3186 + 1.3293) / 5 = 1.3209
Simple enough, right?
Well what if there was a news report on Day 2 that causes the euro to drop across the board. This causes EUR/USD to plunge and close at 1.3000. Let's see what effect this would have on the 5 period SMA.
Day 1: 1.3172
Day 2: 1.3000
Day 3: 1.3164
Day 4: 1.3186
Day 5: 1.3293
The simple moving average would be calculated as follows:
(1.3172 + 1.3000 + 1.3164 + 1.3186 + 1.3293) / 5 = 1.3194
The result of the simple moving average would be a lot lower and it would give you the notion that the price was actually going down, when in reality, Day 2 was just a one-time event caused by the poor results of an economic report.
The point we're trying to make is that sometimes the simple moving average might be too simple. If only there was a way that you could filter out these spikes so that you wouldn't get the wrong idea. Hmm... Wait a minute... Yep, there is a way!
It's called the Exponential Moving Average!
Exponential moving averages (EMA) give more weight to the most recent periods. In our example above, the EMA would put more weight on the prices of the most recent days, which would be Days 3, 4, and 5.
This would mean that the spike on Day 2 would be of lesser value and wouldn't have as big an effect on the moving average as it would if we had calculated for a simple moving average.
If you think about it, this makes a lot of sense because what this does is it puts more emphasis on what traders are doing recently.
Let's take a look at the 4-hour chart of USD/JPY to highlight how an SMA and EMA would look side by side on a chart.

Notice how the red line (the 30 EMA) seems to be closer price than the blue line (the 30 SMA). This means that it more accurately represents recent price action. You can probably guess why this happens.
It's because the EMA places more emphasis on what has been happening lately. When trading, it is far more important to see what traders are doing NOW rather what they were doing last week or last month.


Read more: http://www.babypips.com/school/expon...#ixzz1gjzzkA4H